Friday, May 29, 2009

A Week to Remember

Has there been a time in the past twelve seasons when you, as a die-hard Orioles fan, have felt more optimistic about the future? For the bulk of these 11 straight losing seasons, your head has been filled with false hope and a general sense that this team will bring a winning team back to Baltimore, eventually.

By now, there is no hope left. O's fans know that this team is on the right track. While the O's are still developing (as are most teams), the young talent is falling into place and the positive results are shining through. This most recent week may go down as the most significant week for the Orioles organization in the past decade.

Just think about what has happened over the course of one week, a week that included five shaving cream pies to the face, a game winning blast by a promising rookie, a triplet of solid outings by three pitching prospects, a grand slam in the midst of a scorching streak, and a date that may go down in history as the dawn of a new era of baseball in Baltimore.

Nolan Reimold, the Orioles second most talented hitting prospect, looked like the real deal by hitting 3 HR's including a walk-off shot. Jason Berken, one of the Orioles young pitching prospects, pitched solidly enough for me to believe that the pitching is actually on its way. David Hernandez kicked off his major league career with a fine outing Thursday night. Brad Bergeson pitched a gem and Luuuuuke Scott blasted his fourth and fifth homer in three games Friday night overshadowing the debut of the second coming of Jesus Christ aka Matt Wieters. Was the rainbow over the warehouse on Friday a coincidence? I think not.

At 23-26, 5 games back of first and closing, the O's are winning for all the right reasons. Young talent is taking this team over and the light at the end of the tunnel is visible, for real this time. Then again, that's what winning does for a team and an organization.


Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Don't Expect Much From Wieters

Even though he is arguably the most talented prospect in all of baseball, don't expect Matt Wieters to blossom into a superstar from the get go.

If history is any indication, it is unlikely that Wieters will be an impact player in his first couple months with the O's. While anyone is an upgrade over Gregg Zaun and Chad Moeller, don't expect Wieters to instantly provide a solid bat in the middle portion of the lineup.

Even the most highly rated prospects struggled in their first couple months in the big leagues. Nick Markakis, for example, batted .220 in his first 100 at-bats with only 2 homers. Through their first 100 at-bats, Adam Jones (.210), Evan Longoria (.220), and Dustin Pedroia (.180) each struggled in the first couple of months after getting called up. However, after their initial struggles, all of the aforementioned players turned into impact players.

Rarely will a rookie will burst onto the scene in the couple months following their call-up. Joe Mauer is an example of such a rarity. The batting title-winning Mauer hit .320 to go along with 6 HR's in his first 100 AB's.

As for Wieters, he may join the likes of Joe Mauer and immediately live up to the hype. Prior to the 2009 season, a large handful of 'experts' including ESPN's Buster Olney picked Wieters to win the AL Rookie of the Year award. Olney believes that Wieters is 'Joe Mauer, with power.' It is possible that Wieters comes right out of the gate swinging. However, a player like Mauer is an anomaly. While some have considered Wieters to be an anomaly as well, I am not going to be foolish enough to expect too much out of this kid before he settles into the major league environment.

Either way, the Orioles don't need him to produce in the short run. If Wieters is batting under .230 halfway through July, don't panic. This kid seems like the real deal but we have to give him time to develop, much like the Orioles team as a whole.

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Problem: Struggling Orioles Offense, Solution: Wait it Out or Promote Wieters

Going into Sunday's series finale of the 'Battle of the Beltways,' the Orioles anemic offense had failed to post more than four runs on the board since May 14th, a stretch of eight games.

While the O's have won a few of these low scoring games, no right minded Orioles fan can expect to see the current Orioles pitching staff win games when the offense does not produce.

The Three-Headed Monster (Roberts, Jones, Markakis) at the top of the lineup is no longer the most feared 1-2-3 in baseball. Nick Markakis is slumping, badly. In the past nine games, he is batting .184 with only two extra base hits in that stretch. Most importantly, he has driven in only five runs. His performance is instrumental to the Orioles offense.

Aubrey Huff is another struggling Oriole crucial to driving in runs. Huff, similarly to Markakis, is batting .229 in the past nine games with 4 RBI's. Brian Roberts and Adam Jones have done an excellent job this year getting on base. When Markakis and Huff aren't able to capitalize with runners on base, the Orioles can't win ballgames. It's that simple.

What is going to get this offense going again? First of all, Nick Markakis needs to get back on track. His RBI triple on Sunday is good to see but he went 1 for 5 in the game. I expect that Nick will break out of this slump soon, he is too good of a hitter to continue slumping. Second of all, Aubrey Huff must capitalize with runners on base.

If the offense does not get back on track in their current form, Matt Wieters' inevitable promotion must come to fruition. In the past 10 games, the switch-hitting superstar-to-be is hitting .333 with 4 HR's and 14 RBI's.

If Andy MacPhail is waiting for the right time to promote Wieters, this is it. Chad Moeller and Gregg Zaun are embarrassing at the plate and the O's can't afford to lose games simply because Markakis and Huff aren't doing well.

--BK

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Ace No More

Going into this season, O's fans knew that the pitching would be bad. But most came to the conclusion there was at least one legitimate starter on this team, Jeremy Guthrie. Those O's fans, including myself, were wrong.

After 9 starts, Guthrie is 3-4 with an 5.37 ERA. When Guthrie struggles, the long ball is primarily to blame. He has given up 14 HRs through the first month and a half this season. Last year, he gave up 24 over the course of the entire season.

Since injuring his shoulder last August, Jeremy has not been able to regain the consistency and reliability he showed during the bulk of 2007 and 2008. Guthrie does not maintain the ability to stop, or at the least, mend the bleeding by the Orioles pitching staff, the primary objective of a staff ace.

I've tried to stay fairly contempt in this blog when discussing the Orioles. But I can't any longer. What is wrong with the Orioles baserunning?! As I sit here an write this entry, I am subjected to watching the Orioles squash their own rallies by being overly aggressive and flat out stupid on the basepaths. In this game alone (Orioles @ Yankees 5/20), Brian Roberts was caught stealing second with a runner on 3rd for the third out and Melvin Mora was thrown out at second trying to extend a clear cut single. Back on April 12th, I wrote about my concern with the Orioles baserunning. I mentioned that the Orioles offense is potent enough to stay conservative on the basepaths. The same rings true today. I understand that the O's need to spark rallies by being aggressive especially with such a weak pitching staff. But be aggressive at the plate where they excel, not on the basepaths where they are 22nd in the majors in stolen base success rate (65%).

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Where are they now?

The Orioles completed a lackluster week splitting two series with the Rays and Royals. This week I'll give you a look into how former Orioles of the past couple seasons are performing (or not performing).

SP Daniel Cabrera, Washington Nationals (released by the Orioles in 2008). Not much has changed for this wild work in progress (click the link, it's amusing). Through 9 starts, he is 0-6 with a 6.70 ERA. Daniel has walked 32 batters while only striking out 19 opponents. The Nationals have lost every single time Cabrera takes the mound. But wait, it gets better! At the plate, the nonathletic Cabrera has an on-base percentage of .214 due to 2 base on balls. His batting average for his career is still stuck at .000 but his current on base percentage is 214 points higher than his on base percentage with the Orioles. Keep in mind that he struck out all 15 times he came to bat for the O's. Bottom Line: the Orioles made the right decision by moving on without this wildly inconsistent project. Even he wouldn't be welcome in the Orioles deplorable rotation.

1B Kevin Millar, Toronto Blue Jays (released in 2008). The former clubhouse leader of the O's is currently taking a more secondary role with the Blue Jays, backing up first basemen Lyle Overbay. Milar is batting .281 with 1 HR and 12 RBIs in 64 ABs. Bottom Line: The Orioles clubhouse is without a clear cut leader due to the loss of Millar. On the other hand, Millar's vacancy has allowed the Orioles to put the defensively solid Aubrey Huff at 1B, allowing Luke Scott and Ty Wiggington to fill the DH role, permitting prospects like Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold to get the necessary experience in the outfield to develop.

SP Erik Bedard, Seattle Mariners (traded in 2007 for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, and Kameron Mickolio). Hampered by injuries in 2008, the lethal lefty started 15 games recording a 6-4 record to go along with a respectable 3.67 ERA for the Mariners. So far this season, Bedard is 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA through 7 starts. He was recently scratched from starting due to a hamstring problem, the same problem he had while pitching for the O's in 2007. Bottom Line: Although Bedard hasn't been a dissapointment for the Mariners, it's looking like the trade in 2007 may go down as one of the best trades in Orioles history.

SS Miguel Tejada, Houston Astros (traded in 2007 for Luke Scott, Troy Patton, Dennis Sarfate, Matt Albers, and Michael Costanzo). The change of scenery that Miguel Tejada requested two years ago did not work out too well for the former MVP. Last year, Tejada batted .283 with a mere 13 HRs and 66 RBIs in 158 games amid steroid allegations. This season, his average has increased to .313 but he has only 2 HRs through 36 games. Earlier this year, Tejada was charged with lying to Congress about his usage of performance enhancing drugs. As a result, Tejada is serving a one year probation. There is no doubt that the Astros are disappointed with his production on and off the field especially considering the amount they gave up to the Orioles. Bottom Line: Much like the result of the Bedard trade, the Orioles have seemed to come away the better end of the deal.

OF Jay Gibbons, free agent (cut during 2008 spring training). Jay Gibbons has been on quite a tour since being released by the O's. In the past couple years, the former underachieving slugger has played for the non-MLB affiliated Long Island Ducks (pictured), Hunstville Stars (Milwaukee Brewers AA affilliate), Nashville Sounds (Brewers AAA), and currently the non-MLB affiliated Newark Bears. Mixed in there is a non-roster invite to the Florida Marlins spring training camp. Talk about an abrupt fall. You'd think that he would tear up the minors and these non-MLB affiliated clubs. But sadly, he's batting a depressing .209 for the Newark Bears. The Bears are somewhat of a cess pool for washed up Major League talent. Carl Everett, Rob Mackowiak, Keith Foulke, and Shawn Chacon are all currently playing for the Newark Bears. Bottom Line: Who cares? Unfortunately, the Orioles owe Gibbons $11.9 million over the 2008 and 2009 seasons.


More random O's of the past 6-7 years (just for kicks):
Sammy Sosa (his high expectations and atrocious results)
Sidney Ponson (the inconsistency and DUI's)
B.J. Ryan (legit closer)
Jeff Conine (plain)
Jerry Hairston Jr.
Gary Matthews Jr. (should've held onto him)
Marty Cordova (epitome of Orioles prospects, high expectations, poor results)
David Segui (the underachieving and contract that was recently paid off)
Albert Belle (scaring away trick-or-treaters)
Luis Matos (shades of Paul Blair in center field)
Bruce Chen (his 81 mph fastball)
Jorge Julio (his 100 mph fastball)
Jason Grimsley (steroids)
Tony Batista (his exaggerated open stance)
Jeff Fiorentino (his amazing start and subsequent downfall)
Fernando Tatis (the guy with 2 grand slams in the same inning)
Steve Kline (the balks)
Sal Fasano (the handlebar mustache)
Eric Byrnes (the hustle)
Walter Young (statistically the most obese baseball player in MLB history)

Sunday, May 10, 2009

What We've Learned About the O's After 1 Month

I'm back! After a month-long hiatus, I've returned to talk O's, Ravens, Terps, and more.

1. The Orioles are who we thought they were. As we expected, their young offense is potent and capable of matching up with any offense in the majors. On the other hand, the pitching staff struggles to give their team a chance to win. With the exception of Koji Uehara, none of the Orioles starters have proved themselves. In the bullpen, Jim Johnson, Chris Ray, and George Sherrill are just a few of the terribly inconsistent relievers.

2. Adam Jones is the real deal. The middle piece of the strongest first third of any lineup in the majors is developing at a rate faster than many expected. As of Sunday May 10th, AJ is batting .358 with 6 homers and 21 RBI's not to mention an on-base percentage of .418. He's on pace to hit over 30 home runs and 110 RBI's this season. Along with future All-Star Nick Markakis, this young duo will be insturmental to the team's future successes.


3. The future looks bright. The minor league talent that will be key to the Orioles future success is performing well. Matt Wieters has a batting average of .301 and slugging percentage of .422 at AAA. Through five starts, Chris Tillman, acquired in the soon-to-be-historic Bedard trade, has a 2.52 ERA with 27 K's for the AAA Norfolk Tides. Jake Arrieta (2-1, 3.80 ERA) and Troy Patton (3-0 0.95 ERA) are developing as planned for the AA Bowie Baysox.

4. Orioles fans are losing their patience quickly. Camden Yards is emptier than usual as attendance for non-prime (not Yankees or Red Sox games) continues to dip. Perhaps it's the economy, but the O's are consistently struggling to surpass 12,000 fans for games in the middle of the week, games that used to sell out during the mid-90's. It should come as no surprise that the organization is having trouble filling up The Yard. It is, however, an indication that the Orioles must bring top-notch baseball back to Baltimore before everyone's attention shifts entirely to the superbowl contending Ravens.